Betting Pitfalls: Which Markets You Should Avoid at the Bookmaker #63
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In sports betting, success is not just about picking winners, but consistently finding value and avoiding markets that are structured to favor the house. Experienced bettors often steer clear of certain bet types due to inflated china soccer prediction bookmaker margins, unpredictable variables, or misleading simplicity.
Here is a guide to the types of bets you should generally avoid, as they often offer poor long-term profitability.
I. Markets with Exceedingly High Bookmaker Margins (The House Edge)
The core principle of profitable reliable football prediction sites betting is to find odds that are higher than the true probability of an event (Positive Expected Value, or +EV). Markets with high bookmaker margins make finding this value extremely difficult.
1. Correct Score Bets
The Problem: This market requires you to predict the exact final score (e.g., 2-1, 0-0). The number of possible outcomes is virtually infinite, even when limited to common scores.
Why Avoid: The odds are high, but this is a reflection of the incredibly low probability of success. The bookmaker's margin on Correct Score bets is one of the highest in the industry, meaning you pay a premium for the chance at a huge payout. The long-term strike rate needed to best soccer prediction app profit is unrealistic for all but the luckiest bettors.
The Better Alternative: Betting on Over/Under Total Goals or Both Teams to Score (BTTS), which rely on far fewer variables and have lower margins.
2. Parlays/Accumulators with Many Legs
The Problem: A parlay combines multiple single bets into one wager. To win, every single selection (or 'leg') must be correct. The potential payout is massive because the odds of each leg are multiplied together.
Why Avoid: While the payout is tempting, the house edge is also multiplied. A single bet with a small 5% margin quickly becomes a bet with a 15-20% margin or higher across four or five legs. You are relying on compounding luck, which is a mathematically flawed approach to long-term profit.
The Better Alternative: Stick to single bets or two-to-three-leg parlays on high-confidence picks. This keeps the house edge manageable and preserves your expected value.
II. Markets Based on Low-Value, High-Variance Events
These markets are often hard to predict even for experts, as they are based on random, low-frequency events that make consistent analysis almost impossible.
3. First Goalscorer/First Scorer Bets
The Problem: Predicting which player will score the first goal is a highly arbitrary bet. A player may be a top striker, but a random set-piece, an early defensive error, or a midfield screamer can quickly negate your statistical analysis.
Why Avoid: The outcome is subject to high variance and luck. Odds are compiled on the general scoring history, but the "first" goal element adds a layer of randomness the bookie heavily profits from. Furthermore, if your chosen player does not start, your bet may be voided (a "non-runner"), wasting time and effort.
The Better Alternative: Player Anytime Goalscorer offers much better value, as the variable of "first" is removed, relying only on the player's overall likelihood of finding the net.
4. Corners, Throw-ins, and Booking (Card) Markets
The Problem: These prop bets (e.g., Over/Under 10.5 Corners, Total Yellow Cards) are difficult to analyze consistently because data is often scarce, and the events are highly dependent on the referee's style, minute match incidents, and weather.
Why Avoid: Bookmakers have a weaker grasp on these niche markets, but they compensate by applying high margins. Small wagers from other punters can cause dramatic, unpredictable shifts in the odds ("line movement"), making it hard to find a stable value price.
The Better Alternative: Focus on Goal and Result-based markets (AH, 1X2, Over/Under), where historical data is plentiful and the variables are more stable.
III. Bets with a High "Opportunity Cost"
This refers to bets that are technically safe but offer such low returns that they do not justify the time or risk compared to better options.
5. Double Chance on Strong Favourites
The Problem: A Double Chance bet (e.g., Team A to Win or Draw) has a high probability of success, especially when Team A is a strong favourite.
Why Avoid: The odds are usually extremely low (e.g., 1.10 - 1.20). While the risk is minimal, the potential profit is negligible. Betting a large stake to win a tiny amount ties up your bankroll and carries a massive opportunity cost—the funds could be used to place a better-value bet elsewhere.
The Better Alternative: Use the Asian Handicap 0.0 (Draw No Bet) or a slight negative handicap ($\text AH -0.5$ or $\text AH -0.75$) to achieve a similar safety net with significantly better odds.
6. Betting After Odds Have Already Dropped
The Problem: Professional bettors ("Sharps") are constantly scanning for mispriced odds. When they find a mistake and place large wagers, the bookmaker quickly adjusts (drops) the odds to remove the value.
Why Avoid: Betting on an outcome whose odds have already plummeted means the initial value has disappeared. If you are following a tipster or simply reacting to a sudden odds change, you are likely betting on a Negative Expected Value (-EV) line that offers a worse return than the probability dictates.
The Better Alternative: Always "shop for odds" across multiple bookmakers before placing a bet and focus on getting your wagers in before significant market movement occurs.
Conclusion
A disciplined, profitable bettor treats gambling as a calculated investment, not a game of chance. The best advice is to stick to the major markets—Asian Handicap, Over/Under, and 1X2—where the margins are lower and reliable data analysis is possible. Avoid the high-margin, high-variance "lottery" bets like Correct Score and large Parlays, as they are specifically designed to be highly profitable for the bookmaker, not the punter.